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1 Near-term impact on India IncIndia Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) does not expect the novel coronavirus outbreak to materially affect Indian corporates’ supply chains in the near term, provided it remains contained in the Hubei province. In case the virus is transmitted over the next three to four months, the extent of supply chain disruptions globally could be higher than that during the 2003 SARS outbreak. The quantum of impact on sectors would be contingent on the nature of business activity and the nature of linkages the rest of the world has with mainland China. Source: Report by India Ratings
2 Sectors that could be hit
Several Indian industries have a significant direct dependence on supplies from China. Some of these products such as antibiotics, activated pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and fertilizers are critical commodities and any disruption in the supply over the long-term could have far-reaching economic consequences for India.
Textiles and automobiles could also face supply disruptions for critical raw materials.
All this together could further worsen the recovery in industrial production over near to medium term.
3 Weak commodity prices bode well for India
China is a net importer of various commodities globally. Commodities, where the country contributes to a large part of global consumption, are likely to experience pricing pressures over near to medium term. Indian corporates which are net users of these commodities are likely to report an improvement in their debt protection metrics; whereas some of the net producers are likely to be affected.
4 Supply chain disruptions imminent
China accounted for nearly 11% of the global imports and 13% of global exports in 2018. It also serves as an import supplier of various raw materials and intermediate goods. Thus, the supply chains for various global and Indian industries are linked to China. In a situation wherein the outbreak continues for over two quarters, the impact on China’s industrial activity could be substantial – both due to a fall in labour availability and consumption demand.
Fitch Ratings expects the Chinese GDP to grow by 5.50% in 2020 as against 5.90% in its pre-outbreak scenario. However, in a worst case scenario, it expects GDP to drop to 5.2%.
5 China as a transit country
China serves not only as one of the largest importers for many commodities, but also as a transit hub for various supply chains in South and East Asia. Ind-Ra believes if the outbreak continues to spread unabated, these supply chains could temporarily be decapitated, although major trading hubs and ports outside Hubei province are yet to be locked down. The agency expects a severe impact on global trade volumes – which are already under pressure amid mounting uncertainties emanating from geo-political tensions, trade protectionism and Brexit.
6 Limited room for action
Ind-Ra believes that the impact of the 2003 SARS outbreak on global growth, at least in part, was mitigated by the fiscal and monetary policy room available to policy makers globally. World dollar liquidity was abundant while government, corporate and household leverage levels were significantly lower (including in China and India) than their current levels globally.
China’s account surplus, for instance, has already been under pressure and the country has crowded out capital flows to other EMs. Thus, the ability of governments globally to stimulate growth remains limited.
7 Impact of Chinese exports
In a scenario where it takes longer than anticipated to contain the Coronavirus outbreak, the downside risks to global growth could be substantial. Indian exports could be affected at two levels – first, by way of a slowdown in Indian exports to China and second, as global demand recovery remains lacklustre. For instance, India accounts for nearly 16% of China’s cotton imports and 13% of its construction material imports. China’s share in Indian exports for certain commodities is, however, an even larger.
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1对印度公司的近期影响
印度评级与研究公司（Ind-Ra）预计，如果新的冠状病毒爆发仍在湖北省内，它将不会在近期内严重影响印度企业的供应链。如果病毒在未来三到四个月内传播，全球供应链中断的程度可能会高于2003年SARS爆发时的程度。对行业影响的范围取决于业务活动的性质以及世界其他地区与中国大陆之间的联系性质。资料来源：印度评级报告
2个可能受到打击的领域
印度的一些行业严重依赖中国的供应。其中一些产品（例如抗生素，活性药物成分（API）和肥料）是至关重要的商品，长期供应的任何中断都可能对印度产生深远的经济影响。
纺织品和汽车也可能面临关键原材料的供应中断。
所有这一切都可能进一步恶化中短期内工业生产的复苏。
3印度商品价格疲软预示着良好的发展
中国是全球各种商品的净进口国。该国占全球消费量很大一部分的商品可能会在近期到中期遭受价格压力。这些商品的净用户印度公司可能会报告其债务保护指标有所改善；而某些净生产者可能会受到影响。
4供应链中断迫在眉睫
2018年，中国占全球进口总额的近11％，占全球出口额的13％。它还是各种原材料和中间产品的进口供应商。因此，全球和印度各行各业的供应链都与中国联系在一起。在疫情持续超过两个季度的情况下，这对中国工业活动的影响可能很大，这既是由于劳动力供应和消费需求下降所致。
惠誉国际评级（Fitch Ratings）预计，到2020年中国GDP增长5.50％，而爆发前的情景为5.90％。但是，在最坏的情况下，它预计GDP将下降到5.2％。
5中国作为过境国
中国不仅是许多商品的最大进口国之一，而且还是南亚和东亚各种供应链的中转枢纽。 Ind-Ra认为，如果疫情继续蔓延不减，尽管湖北省以外的主要贸易枢纽和港口尚未锁定，但这些供应链可能会暂时被斩首。该机构预计将对全球贸易量产生严重影响。在地缘政治紧张局势，贸易保护主义和英国退欧带来的不确定性日益加剧的情况下，全球贸易量已受到压力。
6行动空间有限
Ind-Ra认为，全球决策者可以利用的财政和货币政策空间至少可以部分缓解2003年SARS爆发对全球增长的影响。世界美元的流动性充裕，而政府，公司和家庭的杠杆水平（包括中国和印度）明显低于当前全球水平。
例如，中国的帐户盈余已经受到压力，并且已经挤走了流向其他新兴市场的资本。因此，全球政府刺激增长的能力仍然有限。
7中国出口的影响
在遏制冠状病毒爆发的时间比预期更长的情况下，全球增长的下行风险可能很大。印度的出口可能会受到两个方面的影响：首先是印度对中国出口的放缓，其次是全球需求复苏仍然乏善可陈。例如，印度占中国棉花进口量的近16％，占其建筑材料进口量的13％。但是，中国在某些商品的印度出口中所占的份额甚至更大。
https://economictimes.indiatimes ... deshow/74113970.cms
评论
印度政府那边说是三例已经痊愈，然后1000例接触者已经解除观察。
不知道是不是因为天气热的原因。
希望真的是已经解决了，要不然在印度爆发，那问题就真的太大了。
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谢谢你的分享
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实时观察国外的疫情的情况对外贸人也是有好处的吧
加拿大电商各位，我问下，台湾用信汇到大陆，大概需要几天的时间？急都急死了，等着付钱 评论 一般新台币和人民币不可能从台湾打过来，其实从美国，或者哪个国家打过来24小时，尽管多出一 加拿大电商我们公司老板个人一笔外汇收入15000美金,然后他不知道让老外打到我们公司的帐户里来了,那这笔款怎么入帐呀 ,如果作内销不是要缴税吗?!那不是太冤了,我可不可以当作订金(预收帐款
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