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The containerized shipping industry has been essential to global commerce for its low shipping costs. However, high freight rates are starting to have an impact on consumer goods. Already, consumers have started to feel the pinch of the surge on items such as furniture and coffee. Along the transpacific route, Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence recently estimated that freight rates for assembled furniture now account for a whopping 62 percent of the total retail value. It’s the same case for large appliances, for which up to 41 percent of the retail price is the shipping. As container rates continue to rise unabated, these commodities might be priced out: their thinner margins make it impossible to absorb rising costs.In an interview with BBC, Scott Humphreys, the manager of a furniture supply enterprise based in the UK lamented the serious global supply chain bottlenecks, which are making it virtually impossible for his business to operate.
Although Peppermill Interiors supplies furniture in UK, almost half of its stock is imported from East Asia, primarily China. “A single armchair used to us cost ￡12 ($16) to bring in from China. It now costs us ￡100 (139). So the price we sell the chair has gone up by 25 percent - but that isn’t extra profit for us,” said Mr. Humphreys. “Some of the cheaper items, they’ve doubled in price. There’s no point bringing them in anymore.”
Are these setbacks likely to revolutionize the ocean freight industry’s business model?
Roar Adland, a Professor of Shipping at the Norwegian School of Economics, posed a similar question in view of the current disruptions in the industry. “Is the container shipping business model as insulated from disruptions as the carriers would like to believe - surrounded by a deep moat of dedicated infrastructure and complex logistics systems?” asked Adland.
In response, Prof. Adland sees these periods of ‘excess economics rents’ to be tempting for new players to skim the cream, by offering direct point-to-point services on the East-West trade lanes - using smaller vessels and secondary ports where congestion may be minimal.
“Think of the low-cost revolution in the airline business vs. the legacy hub-spoke system over the past 20 years. Both systems can coexist and complement each other in terms of price sensitivity and infrastructure utilization,” Adland wrote.
Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, drove this point home in a recent commentary on the rise of regional shipping services on Pacific and Asia-Europe trade routes.
“As freight rates continue to reach ever new historical highs this has also opened the market for services on Pacific and Asia-Europe using smaller vessels which under normal circumstances would not be used to a large degree in the deep-sea trades,” wrote Jensen.
“A good example is the sudden new influx of new Pacific services from China United Lines (CULines), BAL, Wan Hai and Matson using quite small vessels mainly of 1,700-2,500 TEU range. Another example is CULines’ new Asia-Europe service with 4,300 TEU vessels,” Jensen added.
Meanwhile, the rigidity of the shipping industry will persist until port’s business model is revamped. Most ports fail to apply profit-maximizing pricing or - better still - a pricing model that exploits available capacity more efficiently. “Public ports have to ask themselves whether it is right that they continue to support an oligopolistic liner shipping model rather than taking a bigger share of the cake when there [are] super profits to go around,” wrote Prof. Adland.
googlef翻译：
极端运费开始改变托运人的计算
2021 年 6 月 28 日上午 1:52 由 BRIAN GICHERU KINYUA 发布
集装箱航运业因其低廉的运输成本而对全球商业至关重要。然而，高运费开始对消费品产生影响。消费者已经开始感受到家具和咖啡等商品激增的压力。在跨太平洋航线上，Sea-Intelligence 的首席执行官艾伦墨菲最近估计，组装家具的运费现在占总零售价值的 62%。大型家电的情况也是如此，其中高达 41% 的零售价是运费。随着集装箱运价继续有增无减，这些商品可能会被定价过高：利润微薄，无法承受不断上涨的成本。
在接受 BBC 采访时，英国一家家具供应企业的经理斯科特·汉弗莱斯 (Scott Humphreys) 对严重的全球供应链瓶颈表示遗憾，这使得他的企业几乎无法运营。
尽管 Peppermill Interiors 在英国供应家具，但其近一半的库存是从东亚（主要是中国）进口的。 “我们过去使用的一把扶手椅从中国带过来需要 12 英镑（16 美元）。它现在花费我们 100 英镑（139）。因此，我们出售椅子的价格上涨了 25%——但这对我们来说并不是额外的利润，”汉弗莱斯先生说。 “一些更便宜的商品，它们的价格翻了一番。再把他们带进来已经没有意义了。”
这些挫折是否会彻底改变海运业的商业模式？
鉴于当前行业的混乱局面，挪威经济学院航运学教授 Roar Adland 提出了类似的问题。 “集装箱运输业务模式是否像承运人所相信的那样不受干扰的影响——被专用基础设施和复杂的物流系统所包围？”阿德兰德问道。
作为回应，阿德兰教授认为这些“超额经济租金”时期很容易吸引新参与者通过在东西贸易航线上提供直接的点对点服务——使用较小的船只和二级港口拥塞可能是最小的。
“想想过去 20 年来航空业的低成本革命与传统的轮辐式系统的对比。在价格敏感性和基础设施利用率方面，这两个系统可以共存并相互补充，”阿德兰写道。
Vespucci Maritime 首席执行官 Lars Jensen 在最近关于太平洋和亚欧贸易航线区域航运服务兴起的评论中强调了这一点。
Jensen 写道：“随着运费率不断达到历史新高，这也为太平洋和亚欧地区的服务市场打开了大门，使用较小的船只，这些船只在正常情况下不会在很大程度上用于深海贸易。” .
“一个很好的例子是来自中国联合航运公司 (CULines)、BAL、万海和美森的新太平洋服务突然涌入，使用主要为 1,700-2,500 TEU 范围的小型船舶。另一个例子是 CULines 拥有 4,300 TEU 船只的新亚欧航线，”詹森补充道。
同时，航运业的刚性将持续到港口的商业模式被改造。大多数港口未能应用利润最大化定价或 - 更好的是 - 更有效地利用可用容量的定价模型。 “公共港口必须问问自己，他们继续支持寡头垄断班轮运输模式，而不是在有巨额利润的情况下分得更大的蛋糕，这是否正确，”阿德兰教授写道。
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是什么导致了极端运费？疫情还有航运垄断？
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