加拿大华人论坛 加拿大房产大温地产局报告:2023年,但价格仍将上涨



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www.rebgv.org/content/...2023-.html

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《报告》首先指出,大温哥华地区的房屋销售在2021-2022年创下历史记录。特别是在2021年3月,大温哥华地区房屋销售量创下历史新高,并在2022年一路狂跌几乎逼近历史最低点。造成这种极端波动的最主要变量是抵押贷款利率,为了缓和加拿大通胀压力,加拿大央行进入滚动加息模式,也是该行历史上最激进的货币紧缩周期之一。最近一次位于如此高的政策利率水平是在2007年12月,而上一次利率高于4.5%还需要追溯到2001年。加拿大央行企图将通货膨胀率降至1-3%,目前看收效胜微。历史数据显示,当抵押贷款利率迅速上升时,大温哥华地区的销售节奏会大幅放缓,可能需要24个月以上才能恢复到之前的水平。

“Inflation remains stubbornly high, despite the Bank of Canada’s historically monumental efforts to bring inflation back to their preferred target range of between 1 and 3%,” REBGV said. “Largely because of this, mortgage rates are expected to remain higher than market participants had been used to in recent times.”REBGV also notes that historical data shows home sales in Metro Vancouver tend to slow down as mortgage rates rise rapidly, and can take close to two years to fully recover. Late in January, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate to 4.5%, but noted that they expect to “hold the policy rate at its current level” while assessing the impact of its eight consecutive interest rate increases.Although many believe that the Bank of Canada has indeed reached the end of its interest rate hike cycle, high interest rates will remain prohibitive for some would-be buyers. The minor dip in market activity that REBGV is projecting takes that into account.Home prices, however, have historically been less affected by increased mortgage rates, REBGV says, which is why they are projecting the composite residential average price to hit $1,2000,000 — a 1.4% increase from where the average price ended in 2022, at $1,182,935.In this case, that projection is expected to hold across all property types, with average home prices for single-detached homes expected to increase by 2%, townhouses by 2.1%, and apartments by 1.1%.

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“Nearly all other historical tightening cycles in Canada yielded more modest declines in prices in the region,” REBGV said, while noting the exception of the 1980s recession, which resulted in more drastic price corrections. “Interestingly, a few tightening cycles were even associated with price escalation; a somewhat counter-intuitive result that is nonetheless a verifiable fact of the historical record.”

Home prices have declined by an estimated 10% since the beginning of this current tightening cycle, REBGV says, but have shown signs of slowing down. On top of that is the steady and strong demand in Metro Vancouver, as the region continues to see significant population growth from immigration.

“Despite the well-publicized challenges of housing affordability in this region, the amount of people who continue choosing to reside here represent an important source of demand pressure that continues to push up against a supply of homes that remains scarce,” REBGV concludes. “As the real estate market continues to adjust to the higher mortgage rate environment, it is likely that more buyers and sellers will step back into the market.”

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